I’ve been playing poker only a short time and have read a few books. I’m the guy at the table you love to play because I’m meddling along losing my money. But I’m learning. My question: How do you calculate outs in hold’em? I read, you have 15 outs with pot odds of 8-1 etc etc. 8-1 meaning the pot is 8 times your bet. How do you calculate outs since you don’t know what the opponents have folded? For instance, if any diamond would help you, and you say you have 8 outs, how do you know the other players haven’t folded 6 of them and so there are only 2? Anyone who could give me a crash course on this pot odds to outs thing would be great. Also, any suggested reading would be good. Answer 1: I’m new to poker as well, but from what I’ve learned, you don’t worry about what your opponents have folded, basically, after the flop, there are 47 cards you haven’t seen, if 8 cards can help you, you’re at 39 to 8 which is just about 5 to 1 (i know this isn’t exactly correct, but its close enough to do quickly in your head, it actually reduces to 4.875 to 1,but 5 to 1 is good enough in my book) those cards that have been folded are just thought of as part of the deck, because the odds are still the same. For every 5 cards that don’t help you, there is 1 that does. So let’s just say you DID want to consider what your opponents had. with the odds we figured here, say 6 people folded, that’s 12 cards gone, but the odds are still the same, including what they held, out of those 12 cards gone, 2 would have been what you needed, so the odds within the deck are still the same and the odds you calculate for you to draw what you need included ALL unseen cards, even the ones in your opponents hands. I hope this makes sense, and surely someone will put me in my place if any of my thinking is incorrect here. Answer 2: Only include the cards you know about in your calculations. This might include any cards that end up face up in the muck, flashed as they are folded, flashed by the dealer, or intentionally displayed by your opponents together with the ones on the flop and ones in your hand. If you have AsKs and the flop is QsJc2s then you have 4 tens for the Broadway and 13-4=9 spades for the flush (overlapping one of the tens). That’s 12 outs to strong ands. Additionally any of 3 aces or 3 kings will gives you strong hands although you have to be concerned they could make somebody else a straight. Answer 3: You don’t know if your opponents are holding your outs, “theoretically”, those 8 outs you have could be in the dealer’s hand or in player’s hands. Say you have three Aces. The dealer holds the other 49 cards. Your odds of getting the forth Ace if the dealer deals one card is 1/49. Say the dealer deals out 6 cards to each of 8 players. That leaves the dealer with one card. Your odds are still 1/49 that that one card is an Ace…
I have been pondering at this question for the longest of time since I’ve started playing Hold’em? Should I raise if I am in the BB position? Let’s say that I am holding AA, KK, or AKs and I am in the BB. If I raise, that would clearly send a signal to the other players that I have a strong hand. So thinking this, I shouldn’t raise for deceptive play. After all, if the BB usually just checks after everyone calls then his hand is virtually unknown. But I was also thinking that I could raise with say J10s to get more value should a draw become available on the flop. That would have others guessing that my hand and in the odds are more to my favor. What does everyone think?
Answer 1:
There is something to be said for deception, but you just have to raise with AA and KK. There should be no question about those hands. QQ is certainly worth a raise. You will get a flop without an A or K about half the time. JJ is where you might think about just calling. With a large field, you almost have to play to hit a set. AKs plays well in a big pot, go ahead and raise it. AQs and KQs too. AKo is still a premium hand. I’d raise with it from the BB most of the time. Check maybe 30% of the time for deception. And go for
a check-raise if I hit the flop. I like the idea of raising with JTs (or something like that) from the BB to keep people guessing. IMHO, *that* is the best way to be deceptive. Not by checking with AA and KK.
Answer 2:
I think you’re on the right track. Although you can raise or re-raise from any position profitably with AA or KK, it’s a good idea to make deceptive plays such as you describe. Against a large field, you could also take your option to raise with a middle or small pair. That way, if you hit your set on the flop, many callers will pay you off to the river. The ideal would be that you hold, say, 55, and the flop comes 5 A 9 rainbows. Anyone with a baby ace will pay you off.
Answer 3:
My experience is that a raise from the blind is unlikely to oust anyone who has already called one bet. If there is a raiser in the back of the field, and you can force folks up front to choose between calling two bets cold by re-raising, then re-raising is probably mandatory. Otherwise, you’re raising just for value.